A Blogger’s Paradise

BarroMetrics Views: A Blogger’s Paradise

I started this blog to help readers of Nature of Trends (NOT) understand my ideas and to gain greater insight on how I applied the concept.  Of course, my objective has expanded over time. Nevertheless,  my original aim is still the main one.

Now, I don’t always find it easy to write a daily blog – sometimes ideas are hard to come by. But sometimes, the market provides an opportunity I can only describe as a ‘blogger’s paradise’. Last night, the S&P provided such an opportunity.  Let me start the blog by explaining to the non-readers of NOT that the foundations of my plan’s technical approach are:

  • A variation of the Elliott Wave, an objective version, I call the Ray Wave
  • The ideas and principles of Richard Wyckoff.
  • Pete Steidlmayer’s Market Profile. And while Pete Steidlmayer would probably not agree, I see his Market Profile as an extension of Wyckoff’s ideas.
  • One of the common elements of Wyckoff and the Profile are the concepts and strategies around the relationship of price direction, price range and volume. Market Delta has added a dimension to the analysis by classifying real-time volume as being buyer or seller control.
  • To these ideas I have added the Barros Swing and
  • Finally you have traditional technical analysis (Edwards and McGee patterns) and traditional candlestick principles

That completes the elements of my approach. Let’s now turn to the S&P.

The first pattern I want to show you is found in Figure 1: the monthly chart of the S&P. This is the pattern that is controlling current price action and is a pattern is that Peter Steidlmayer called a ‘313 Outside’. The elements of the Pattern are:

  •  A sideways market (313)
  • The breach of an extreme in the direction of the original direction move (trend) and
  • Failure to follow through on the break.
  • This calls for a move to at least the Primary Sell Zone.

In Figure 1 the prior 12-M Barros Swing trend (Yearly Trend) was up. At 666.80, the S&P took out the low at 768.65 but failed to continue South. Instead we saw the S&P return into congestion. This price action provides a highly probable move to the Primary Sell Zone at 1577 to 1476.

More tomorrow

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FIGURE 1 12-Month S&P

1 thought on “A Blogger’s Paradise”

  1. Dear Ray,

    I am currently reading the NOT and it has made me to view tha market in a different way then before. Thanks for this!
    Please let me some technical question regarding the Barros Swing in some special cases that are not mentioned in the book and in the video among your freestuff:

    E.g. If I draw a 1-period swing, started from a significant low, it is clear that I sould continue to draw the swing to the Highs of each consecutive bar as long as Highs are going higher.
    It is also clear that in case of an “inside bar” I should wait how to continue.
    The next step, however, is unclear to me in some special cases. Say that the last bar where swing was drawn is N, and the inside bar is N+1.
    – what if N+2 bar has higher high and lower low than N+1, but still has lower high and higher low than N?
    – what if N+2 bar has higher high and lower low than both N+1 and N?
    – what if N+2 bar has higher high and higher low than N+1, but it still has lower high than N? Should I draw the swing to the High of the N+2 bar in this case despite it is lower than the High of N?
    if yes, does it mean that swings are not necessarily drawned to extreme points?
    – what if N+2 bar has lower high and lower low than N+1, but it still has higher low than N? Should the swing turn down in this case? If yes, does it mean that swings not necessarily turn on extreme points?
    Are there any Barros Swing rules for such cases that I have missed?

    Many thanks in advance

    Zoltan

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