AUDUSD Triangle? III

BarroMetrics Views: AUDUSD Triangle? III

The AUDUSD has setup on the daily chart.

Figure 1 shows a throwover at what may prove to be the “E” leg. For the triangle scenario to be correct, we need to see prices hold below 0.9233. And, given the fact we have Non-Farm Payrolls tomorrow, and the above normal range move yesterday, I would expect today to have a smaller than normal range (around 80 pips).

Looking into the crystal ball, I’d be looking to take a position after the Non-Farm number if :

  • We see the setup in Figure 2 in the AUDUSD 60-minute. I’d want to see, at least, a break below .9103.
  • (Ideally) we see formed a potentially a lower top at ‘C’ ahead of Non-Farm – even better would be a rejected probe above ‘A’ before a breach of the trendline.
  • Non-Farm comes out above 234K (consensus range is 150k to 234k).
  • One note of caution: the ADP number is coming out tonight (8:30 PM HK, 8:30 AM EST). It usually is a poor guide to Non-Farm but lately the markets have been responding to it. I’d want to see it come within expectations so that we don’t see price shocks eventuate. If the ADP changes the essential structure of AUDUSD, I’ll post again tonight.

Tomorrow, I’ll look at the scenario of (i) a breach above .9233 as well as (ii) acceptance above it – the two are different scenarios for me and raise different responses.




FIGURE 2 AUDUSD 60-minutes

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