Trade War – Black Swan?

BarroMetrics Views: Trade War – Black Swan?

Firstly: we have the numbers for the live-stream! I’ll be sending out the registration link on Monday to all wrote in. Thank you. It will be a fab event. Even without Oanda (our joint venture partner), who will only start their marketing on Tuesday, we are half full for the session in Singapore.

We are already half full; and next week Oanda (our joint venture partner), who will start their marketing on Tuesday. So have a rosy picture for July 5.

Turning to day’s piece…….

As we near one of my possible cycle high dates, I was wondering what event might trigger a sell-off in the markets.

I spotted a possible issue today.

First the context:

For years, the Chinese-US been head-butting about unfair, Chinese steel exporting, practices. The US claims the Chinese are dumping cheap steel onto the world markets. It has been partially successful in stemming entry into the US by filing anti-dumping cases that have resulted in high tariffs. But, it also appears that cheap Chinese steel is circumventing US efforts by using third countries to export to the US.

The Trump Solution

Next week, the word is Trump will use a 1962 law to protect US steel interest:

He’ll declare that the threat to the steel industry constitutes ‘a threat to national security’.

Trump will be using a law passed in 1962 which gave US presidents broad powers to limit imports in the interests of national security. Most importantly, he can do this without Congress. Thus, Trump would achieve his most cherished dream: doing whatever he wants without Congressional oversight.

The word is we’ll see:

  1. A system of quotas and tariffs. Firstly, the steel imports from a country would be frozen at current levels. Then, any imports above these levels would be subject to punitive tariffs; and/or
  2. A broad set of tariffs on all steel imports.

The Consequence

Will have to wait till Monday.

Macro-ops “Playing the Player” 2

BarroMetrics Views: Macro-ops “Playing the Player” 2

Firstly, thanks for the emails and comment regarding the negative expectancy of the backtesting results. The feedback shows someone is reading my blogs! I sometimes wonder.

Apologies for the error when writing up the results. I reversed the Avg@Win and Avg$Loss numbers. The correct numbers are:

  • Avg$Win: 823.00
  • Avg$Loss 360.00

Update on registrations: 5. So, unless we see a pickup, it’s unlikely we’ll proceed (we need 25 more). Thanks to those who have signed up. If you are planning to join, please drop me a line indicating your interest: ramonbarros@tradingsuccess.com

Turning to today’s blog……

Thanks to those who wrote in asking how to apply ‘play the player’.

Frankly, it’s not a question I felt qualified to answer. Luckily, yesterday, Alex replied to that very query. So, I have attached his reply below. In his article, he made an offer to provide a checklist.

If you’d like a copy, I do have a request: please send your requests to the ‘blog comment section’ and not to my email. Thanks, I’d appreciate the cooperation.

By the way, if you like Alex’s pieces, please write to him at alex@micro-ops.com to see how to get onto his subscription list.

2017-06-22 Macro-ops Playing the Player_2

Macro-ops “Playing the Player”

BarroMetrics Views: Macro-ops “Playing the Player”

First, an apology, I forgot to attach the results of the trading method included as a giveaway on July 5. Here it is.

Backtesting

An update: So far we have five expressions of interest for the live streaming. We need 30 to proceed. 

Turning today’s offering……..

Here’s a summary of an interesting investing/trading approach from Macro-ops; it’s a variation on the contrarian sentiment method view. I have also attached the whole article for you.

Here’s a summary of an interesting investing/trading approach from Macro-ops. It’s a variation on the contrarian sentiment method. Also, I have attached the whole article for you.

SUMMARY:

  • Markets are the result of an aggregation of various individuals’ beliefs. The average of these beliefs sets market prices.
  • To play the player, all we need to do is sniff out the most dominant, consensus beliefs and exploit them.
  • This process involves 3 steps
  1.  Identify the dominant beliefs driving markets 
  2. Determine alternative future scenarios that would impact these beliefs and subsequent asset pricing.
  3. Wait for indications to see which scenario is playing out by using price action
  • Reading the financial news is a great way to get a sense of how other players are thinking which informs you of the dominant market belief.
  • To play the player, ask what if the consensus market belief is wrong and then wait to see how the price action and fundamentals unfold

To save you asking, I’m not sure how you can get on their free newsletter as it no longer seems to be available from the site. You can try writing to:

alex@macro-ops.com.

macrops

Image credits: Macro-ops

July 5 – Update

BarroMetrics Views: July 5 – Update

I was hoping to have the URL landing page up on the blog today. But, gremlins struck. While waiting for the solution, I thought it best to see if you there is enough interest from you to run the streaming. We need at least 30 to cover live streaming costs.

Program:

Our objective is to provide a content-rich presentation that will allow attendees to kick start their profitability.

To this end, I’ll be providing live FX trading to illustrate the ideas presented. You’re asked to join in the process because we remember 75% of what we do and only 5% of what we hear.

The content will cover the ‘3 Mistakes Losing Traders Make and what you do to avoid them and join the 10% who win’. 

Here is what you’ll come away with after attending:

  1. A video of the event.
  2. A process for analysing and reviewing your trades.
  3. An equity journal (spreadsheet with macros): to provide the stats you need to improve your trading. Googling for ‘download trading equity journals‘, I found prices ranged from USD 120.00 to USD 200.00
  4. A trading plan (backtesting results attached)
  5. A template for your psych journal.

In short, everything you need to your trading profitable.  An attendee described it as a mini-trading course.

It’s important to understand that the event is a partnership: we provide the information, you provide the action – no action from you, means no benefits.

Details:

  • Date: Wednesday, July 5
  • Time: 19:00 to 22:00 (Singapore) (Australia 21:00 to 00:00) (7:00 to 10 EST) (12:00 to 15:00 UK).
  • Location: Live streaming via the net.

 

There is an SGD registration fee of $20 (about US $14)

If you’d like to attend, on or before Monday, 26 June 21:00, please drop a line to:

Ray Barros Trading Group <support@tradingsuccess.com>

——————-

Image credits: www.linkedin.com/pulse/video-streaming-methodology-reema-majumdar

July 5 – Enquiries

BarroMetrics Views: July 5 – Enquiries

I was planning to post this on Monday, June 19. But, I received quite a few emails asking how to register, so I’m posting the entry today. The link for registration will be posted on June 19.

The main email question raised was: how is July 5 different? It’s different because I’m attempting to synthesise live trading with supporting content.

If you have attended a live trading presentation, you’ll probably have shared the same reaction: how boring!

  • The presenter rattles on about what he plans to do;
  • The market does its thing, taking its own sweet time. In the meantime, the presenter has to somehow fill the empty minutes. You know the ones, the minutes spent waiting for the trade to setup and follow-through!

That’s what I wanted to avoid. So, on July 5, the real-time trading will be used as a context to a process. Follow the process you ensure you are taking a high-quality trade:

  • One with the appropriate reward: risk ratio, and
  • One with the pre-planning that prevents the 3Fs (fight, flight, or fear) from kidnapping our neo-cortex. As a result, you’ll eliminate most of your impulse trades.

Also, each registrant will receive:

  • A mechanical trend-trading method
  • An equity journal spreadsheet that calculates the essential trading stats (retail USD 130.00 to USD 225.00); and
  • A template for the psych journal.

The second question raised was: will the presentation be made available to those living ex-Singapore?

That will depend on the registrations. We’ll need around 30 to justify the costs of streaming. Also, the time is a factor for overseas traders. The presentation takes place between 19:15 to 21:15:

  • In Sydney, that’s 21:15 to 23:15
  • In New York, that’s 7:15 to 9:15 and
  • In London, that’s 12:00 to 14:00

The takeaways:

  1. You’ll have a professional model for analysing the markets
  2. You’ll have a process for skirting the three major mistakes made by 90% of traders.
  3. You’ll receive high-quality attendance gifts.

Stayed tuned for Monday’s post. And no, I won’t release the rego link before June 19.

Image credits: iqoption

Nassim Taleb’s Interesting Ideas

BarroMetrics Views: Nassim Taleb’s Interesting Ideas 

I’ve been focused on creating the material for a July 5 three-hour presentation in Singapore. The format will be different to anything I have ever done so it’s taking quite a chunk of my time. The good news is I’ll have all done by tonight.

In the meantime, here’s an interesting piece by Dr Wealth on Nassim Tableb.

Nassim Taleb – A Contrarian Investor and his Unorthodox Ideas

Image Credits: flckr.com

Hung Parliament!

BarroMetrics Views: Hung Parliament!

Well, folks, it’s confirmed, the UK has a hung Parliament.  What does that mean?

In the UK, a party that has 326 is said to have a majority – it can pass legislation with the support of other parties. A hung parliament occurs when a party captures less than 326 seats. The options for the Conservatives are:

  • Form a minority government (May will need the support of a minor party for each piece of legislation) or
  • Form a coalition (there will be a formal agreement with a minor party for support

Only the Democratic Unionist have professed support for May. The problem is the DUP won only 10 seats. So even with their total support, the Tories have only 315+10 = 325 i.e. one short of the needed 326.

What about the Liberal Democrats? It did form a coalition with the Tories in 2010.  I just can’t see Tim Farron working with May. Sure, politics form strange bedfellows. But, in this case, I think it highly unlikely – especially with May’s refusal to resign.

The conundrum that the Tories are in means there is only one other solution: another election. And, another election will bring more uncertainty into the marketplace. You know how markets abhor uncertainty!

For the trader, the problems stemming from the election produce a simple strategy. Find the appropriate GBP pair, look for a place to institute a trade and go short!

 

MASTERY – A Post Mortem

(through the courtesy of orozcode sign studio)

BarroMetrics Views: MASTERY – A Post Mortem

We completed Mastery last week. Undoubtedly is was the comprehensive and mentally exhausting course I have held – at least so far as I’m concerned.

How would I rate its success?

For me, a mixed bag: from incredible, unexpected results to disappointing. ‘Incredible’ because a couple of attendees made significant breakthroughs; ‘disappointing’ because some could have done much better. 

What was the difference between the two groups?

The ‘success’ group gave it their all. Right from the start, I could see they were committed to living up to their highest potential – no matter what. They attended all the sessions and did all the assigned work irrespective of what was happening in their lives. Also, the quality of the assigned work showed they had put in time and effort.

The ‘failure’ group attended most of the meetings and did most of the assigned work – with the key distinctions being ‘all’ and ‘most’. Also, the ‘failure’ group’s quality of assigned was poor. The work resembled a hurriedly constructed piece with little thought.

So, what’s the takeaway? You want to succeed in the markets? Do the work! Commit to your own success without excuses and with a ‘whatever it takes‘. Come into trading with a determination less than that, and you’ll fail – not ‘if’ or ‘perhaps’ but ‘will’.

UK Elections June 8

BarroMetrics Views: UK Elections June 8

Not so long ago, the result was a ho-hum affair with the Tories expected to increase their majority. Now? Not so easy because there are some complications.

Firstly, without a doubt, Labour has pulled back ground. The question is how much?

This leads to the second complication: the reliability of the polls.

After Brexit showed UK’s polling methods suspect, we are seeing a host of new, untried approaches. The result is the UK polls are all over the place. For example:

  • The Telegraph has the Tories ahead, with Labour breathing down their necks. (Figure 1)
  • On May 31, YouGov produces a poll showing a hung parliament! in their latest poll, YouGov has the Tories at 42% (304 seats) and Labour at 36% (266 seats).
  • The polls using the ‘old’ methods have the conservatives ahead- but within the margin of error i.e. too close to call.

From a trader’s point of view, the GBP pairs, especially the GBPUSD, will move down unless the Tories retain at least 330 seats.

Let’s see what happens.

FIGURE 1 Telegraph Poll Averages

FIGURE 2 Parliamentary Seats

HK Property Bubble? US Stock Market?

Housing bubble

BarroMetrics Views: HK Property Bubble? US Stock Market?

I’m starting to see signs of the late stages of a HK housing bubble: it’s a sign when the man in the street says: ‘Damn the prices! They’ll never come down’.

On Saturday (June 3), the SCMP reported that sales of flats at Ocean Pride were fetching record prices. HK authorities were concerned enough to sound a warning that a property bubble may burst (Norman Lam, CEO HK Monetary Authority). The public’s response?

“Home prices have always been high,” said Alice Shun, one of the hundreds of buyers in the queue for Ocean Pride. “I don’t think it can really ever go down from here”. (emphasis mine)

Another sign is when pundits join the cry.

In the same SCMP edition, Jan Ver Kamp, a popular columnist concluded:

“Mortgage interest rate is the biggest single affordability factor in an affordability ratio, and it has now fallen to levels never believed possible in 1981 or 1997.” (The prior two property slumps).

After tracing the reason for the downward spiral in interest rates, he goes on to say: “And now the people responsible for this folly have to admit they don’t know how to undo it and that their political masters do not really want them to do so.”.

In short, this time it’s different ….. until it’s not.

I’m seeing the same ‘must buy’ sentiment in the US stock market but not quite to the same extent. Last week we saw the stock market move up on poorer than expected Non-Farm payrolls. We’re again starting to see the stock market’s desire to move up irrespective of fundamentals.

Figure 1 shows the last three 18-day impulse swings compared to the current one. Note we are beginning to see a decline in the average true range and average volume. True, it’s early days. But, if I see:

  • the average range drop below 13 points and
  • the average volume drop 300,000

as the market moves into my time and price targets: July – August 2017 and 2560 to 2640  I’ll have the evidence I need to suggest a top is at hand. In the meantime, the bull is alive.

FIGURE 1 S&P 18-day Swing

(chart through the courtesy of Optuma)