Published in January 24th, 2012
For me, the end of 2011 brought a personal crisis that has lasted until this morning. I had some news today which brings some sunshine. Let’s hope Dragon Year is good for you and me.
Turning to the markets.
Since the beginning of the year, the S&P has been grinding up in a fashion that suggests a […]
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Published in January 10th, 2012
BarroMetrics Views: Cooking the Books
The stats of some countries, e.g. China, we just can’t believe. To get a handle on their affairs, we rely on anecdotal evidence or on numbers the Central Government fails to hide. When I first started trading in the early 70’s, the one country’s stats I felt I could rely on […]
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Published in January 9th, 2012
BarroMetrics Views: Wish to See
One of the pitfalls traders face is “seeing what we wish to see”; and often, the market will accommodate us.
Take the S&P last week - the price action had enough signs to satisfy both bull and bear.
We started with the seasonal bullish start on Jan 3. The bulls were clearly in […]
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Published in January 5th, 2012
BarroMetrics Views; The Rule of Law
Two items in HK’s SCMP (the equivalent of the WSJ (US) or Sydney Morning Herald).
The first quoted Bloomberg’s ‘Breaching the Public Trust’. To quote:
“Laws that were set up to punish bad guys got waived within days of announcemnts that offenders had been brought down” It went on to quote the […]
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Published in January 4th, 2012
BarroMetrics Views: 2012 In With a Bang?
The world stock markets started 2012 with a bang. Seasonally this is what the first day of the New Year usually brings. I am more interested to see what today brings. Today will mark the end of the ‘Xmas Rally’ period, I use it together with the January effect […]
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Published in December 21st, 2011
BarroMetrics Views: Xmas Indicator for 2012
Many years ago I read an article about the ‘Santa Claus Rally’ and ‘The January Barometer’. Since reading the article, I have incorporated both into my trading plan.
The Santa Claus Rally takes in the last five days of a year and the first two days in January. If a rally […]
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Published in December 19th, 2011
BarroMetrics Views: Deju Vu
In 1980, I sold my legal practice and turned to full-time trading. At the time, Gold was in a downtrend, and I seemed to pick to go short the precise day when it would correct up for 2 to 3 days. I compounded the loss by stopping and reversing (so from short, […]
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Published in December 16th, 2011
BarroMetrics Views: Europe and the US
Watching CNBC last night, I could not help by be struck how TV has augmented effects of the recency bias. When Non-Farm for November came out showing an unemployment rate of 8.6%, I was expecting the commentators to jump on the hype bandwagon that the US was well on the […]
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Published in December 15th, 2011
BarroMetrcis Views: S&P Dec 15 2011
The whipsaw price action has left a trail of losses in its wake.
Figure 1 has my take on the pattern that is forming: I think it’s forming a triangle (hence the whipsaw price action) with Wave ‘c’ to complete (go to the bottom of the trendline) and Wave ‘d’’s low […]
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Published in December 12th, 2011
BarroMetrics Views: The European Summit
If you read the papers, you’ll see conflicting views on who ‘won’ at the meeting. Most seem to agree that Sarkozy came out in front mainly because the UK stopped Merkel from getting all 27 EU members to the treaty change. In my view that is confusing the appearance with the […]
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