Published in January 4th, 2012
BarroMetrics Views: 2012 In With a Bang?
The world stock markets started 2012 with a bang. Seasonally this is what the first day of the New Year usually brings. I am more interested to see what today brings. Today will mark the end of the ‘Xmas Rally’ period, I use it together with the January effect […]
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Published in December 21st, 2011
BarroMetrics Views: Xmas Indicator for 2012
Many years ago I read an article about the ‘Santa Claus Rally’ and ‘The January Barometer’. Since reading the article, I have incorporated both into my trading plan.
The Santa Claus Rally takes in the last five days of a year and the first two days in January. If a rally […]
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Published in December 19th, 2011
BarroMetrics Views: Deju Vu
In 1980, I sold my legal practice and turned to full-time trading. At the time, Gold was in a downtrend, and I seemed to pick to go short the precise day when it would correct up for 2 to 3 days. I compounded the loss by stopping and reversing (so from short, […]
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Published in December 16th, 2011
BarroMetrics Views: Europe and the US
Watching CNBC last night, I could not help by be struck how TV has augmented effects of the recency bias. When Non-Farm for November came out showing an unemployment rate of 8.6%, I was expecting the commentators to jump on the hype bandwagon that the US was well on the […]
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Published in December 15th, 2011
BarroMetrcis Views: S&P Dec 15 2011
The whipsaw price action has left a trail of losses in its wake.
Figure 1 has my take on the pattern that is forming: I think it’s forming a triangle (hence the whipsaw price action) with Wave ‘c’ to complete (go to the bottom of the trendline) and Wave ‘d’’s low […]
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Published in December 12th, 2011
BarroMetrics Views: The European Summit
If you read the papers, you’ll see conflicting views on who ‘won’ at the meeting. Most seem to agree that Sarkozy came out in front mainly because the UK stopped Merkel from getting all 27 EU members to the treaty change. In my view that is confusing the appearance with the […]
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Published in November 25th, 2011
BarroMetrics Views: S&P and Seasonality II
More quant studies This time by Jason Goepfert who writes a daily newsletter (see http://www.sentimentrader.com/)
“2011 can now officially claim the worst pre-Thanksgiving week ever. Two other years, 1973 and 2000, had losses exceeding -3% and 6 years had losses greater than -2%.
Of those 6, the half-day after the holiday was […]
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Published in November 24th, 2011
BarroMetrics Views: S&P and Seasonality
There are two seasonality periods, I have tended to rely on because both have proven to be consistent: the first are the stats surrounding Thanksgiving and the second are the stats surrounding the Xmas Rally.
Rob Hanna of Quantifiable Edges produced a day-by-day breakdown of the stat in 2010, see http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/2010/11/thanksgiving-week-tendencies-revisited.html
His […]
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Published in November 2nd, 2011
BarroMetrics Views: Europe Revisited
In EuroZone Crisis, I set out the issues Europe had to address if it were to avert a full-blown crisis. I wrote the piece before the announcement of the package that ’saved Greece from defaulting’.
In that blog, one of the problems I highlighted was the size of the Italian deficit. I […]
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Published in October 28th, 2011
Cross ref:
http://anatrader.com/?p=1463Cashflow with Ray Barros
BoJ Intervention Unsustainable
Fri. Oct. 28 2011 | 10:40 AM[04:07]
Paul Mackel, head of Asia currency research at HSBC, thinks that dollar yen will still move lower even if Bank of Japan intervenes.
NYMEX, Brent Prices to Follow Sentiments in […]
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