Macro-ops “Playing the Player” 2

BarroMetrics Views: Macro-ops “Playing the Player” 2

Firstly, thanks for the emails and comment regarding the negative expectancy of the backtesting results. The feedback shows someone is reading my blogs! I sometimes wonder.

Apologies for the error when writing up the results. I reversed the Avg@Win and Avg$Loss numbers. The correct numbers are:

  • Avg$Win: 823.00
  • Avg$Loss 360.00

Update on registrations: 5. So, unless we see a pickup, it’s unlikely we’ll proceed (we need 25 more). Thanks to those who have signed up. If you are planning to join, please drop me a line indicating your interest: ramonbarros@tradingsuccess.com

Turning to today’s blog……

Thanks to those who wrote in asking how to apply ‘play the player’.

Frankly, it’s not a question I felt qualified to answer. Luckily, yesterday, Alex replied to that very query. So, I have attached his reply below. In his article, he made an offer to provide a checklist.

If you’d like a copy, I do have a request: please send your requests to the ‘blog comment section’ and not to my email. Thanks, I’d appreciate the cooperation.

By the way, if you like Alex’s pieces, please write to him at alex@micro-ops.com to see how to get onto his subscription list.

2017-06-22 Macro-ops Playing the Player_2

Macro-ops “Playing the Player”

BarroMetrics Views: Macro-ops “Playing the Player”

First, an apology, I forgot to attach the results of the trading method included as a giveaway on July 5. Here it is.

Backtesting

An update: So far we have five expressions of interest for the live streaming. We need 30 to proceed. 

Turning today’s offering……..

Here’s a summary of an interesting investing/trading approach from Macro-ops; it’s a variation on the contrarian sentiment method view. I have also attached the whole article for you.

Here’s a summary of an interesting investing/trading approach from Macro-ops. It’s a variation on the contrarian sentiment method. Also, I have attached the whole article for you.

SUMMARY:

  • Markets are the result of an aggregation of various individuals’ beliefs. The average of these beliefs sets market prices.
  • To play the player, all we need to do is sniff out the most dominant, consensus beliefs and exploit them.
  • This process involves 3 steps
  1.  Identify the dominant beliefs driving markets 
  2. Determine alternative future scenarios that would impact these beliefs and subsequent asset pricing.
  3. Wait for indications to see which scenario is playing out by using price action
  • Reading the financial news is a great way to get a sense of how other players are thinking which informs you of the dominant market belief.
  • To play the player, ask what if the consensus market belief is wrong and then wait to see how the price action and fundamentals unfold

To save you asking, I’m not sure how you can get on their free newsletter as it no longer seems to be available from the site. You can try writing to:

alex@macro-ops.com.

macrops

Image credits: Macro-ops

July 5 – Update

BarroMetrics Views: July 5 – Update

I was hoping to have the URL landing page up on the blog today. But, gremlins struck. While waiting for the solution, I thought it best to see if you there is enough interest from you to run the streaming. We need at least 30 to cover live streaming costs.

Program:

Our objective is to provide a content-rich presentation that will allow attendees to kick start their profitability.

To this end, I’ll be providing live FX trading to illustrate the ideas presented. You’re asked to join in the process because we remember 75% of what we do and only 5% of what we hear.

The content will cover the ‘3 Mistakes Losing Traders Make and what you do to avoid them and join the 10% who win’. 

Here is what you’ll come away with after attending:

  1. A video of the event.
  2. A process for analysing and reviewing your trades.
  3. An equity journal (spreadsheet with macros): to provide the stats you need to improve your trading. Googling for ‘download trading equity journals‘, I found prices ranged from USD 120.00 to USD 200.00
  4. A trading plan (backtesting results attached)
  5. A template for your psych journal.

In short, everything you need to your trading profitable.  An attendee described it as a mini-trading course.

It’s important to understand that the event is a partnership: we provide the information, you provide the action – no action from you, means no benefits.

Details:

  • Date: Wednesday, July 5
  • Time: 19:00 to 22:00 (Singapore) (Australia 21:00 to 00:00) (7:00 to 10 EST) (12:00 to 15:00 UK).
  • Location: Live streaming via the net.

 

There is an SGD registration fee of $20 (about US $14)

If you’d like to attend, on or before Monday, 26 June 21:00, please drop a line to:

Ray Barros Trading Group <support@tradingsuccess.com>

——————-

Image credits: www.linkedin.com/pulse/video-streaming-methodology-reema-majumdar

July 5 – Enquiries

BarroMetrics Views: July 5 – Enquiries

I was planning to post this on Monday, June 19. But, I received quite a few emails asking how to register, so I’m posting the entry today. The link for registration will be posted on June 19.

The main email question raised was: how is July 5 different? It’s different because I’m attempting to synthesise live trading with supporting content.

If you have attended a live trading presentation, you’ll probably have shared the same reaction: how boring!

  • The presenter rattles on about what he plans to do;
  • The market does its thing, taking its own sweet time. In the meantime, the presenter has to somehow fill the empty minutes. You know the ones, the minutes spent waiting for the trade to setup and follow-through!

That’s what I wanted to avoid. So, on July 5, the real-time trading will be used as a context to a process. Follow the process you ensure you are taking a high-quality trade:

  • One with the appropriate reward: risk ratio, and
  • One with the pre-planning that prevents the 3Fs (fight, flight, or fear) from kidnapping our neo-cortex. As a result, you’ll eliminate most of your impulse trades.

Also, each registrant will receive:

  • A mechanical trend-trading method
  • An equity journal spreadsheet that calculates the essential trading stats (retail USD 130.00 to USD 225.00); and
  • A template for the psych journal.

The second question raised was: will the presentation be made available to those living ex-Singapore?

That will depend on the registrations. We’ll need around 30 to justify the costs of streaming. Also, the time is a factor for overseas traders. The presentation takes place between 19:15 to 21:15:

  • In Sydney, that’s 21:15 to 23:15
  • In New York, that’s 7:15 to 9:15 and
  • In London, that’s 12:00 to 14:00

The takeaways:

  1. You’ll have a professional model for analysing the markets
  2. You’ll have a process for skirting the three major mistakes made by 90% of traders.
  3. You’ll receive high-quality attendance gifts.

Stayed tuned for Monday’s post. And no, I won’t release the rego link before June 19.

Image credits: iqoption

Nassim Taleb’s Interesting Ideas

BarroMetrics Views: Nassim Taleb’s Interesting Ideas 

I’ve been focused on creating the material for a July 5 three-hour presentation in Singapore. The format will be different to anything I have ever done so it’s taking quite a chunk of my time. The good news is I’ll have all done by tonight.

In the meantime, here’s an interesting piece by Dr Wealth on Nassim Tableb.

Nassim Taleb – A Contrarian Investor and his Unorthodox Ideas

Image Credits: flckr.com

MASTERY – A Post Mortem

(through the courtesy of orozcode sign studio)

BarroMetrics Views: MASTERY – A Post Mortem

We completed Mastery last week. Undoubtedly is was the comprehensive and mentally exhausting course I have held – at least so far as I’m concerned.

How would I rate its success?

For me, a mixed bag: from incredible, unexpected results to disappointing. ‘Incredible’ because a couple of attendees made significant breakthroughs; ‘disappointing’ because some could have done much better. 

What was the difference between the two groups?

The ‘success’ group gave it their all. Right from the start, I could see they were committed to living up to their highest potential – no matter what. They attended all the sessions and did all the assigned work irrespective of what was happening in their lives. Also, the quality of the assigned work showed they had put in time and effort.

The ‘failure’ group attended most of the meetings and did most of the assigned work – with the key distinctions being ‘all’ and ‘most’. Also, the ‘failure’ group’s quality of assigned was poor. The work resembled a hurriedly constructed piece with little thought.

So, what’s the takeaway? You want to succeed in the markets? Do the work! Commit to your own success without excuses and with a ‘whatever it takes‘. Come into trading with a determination less than that, and you’ll fail – not ‘if’ or ‘perhaps’ but ‘will’.

UK Elections June 8

BarroMetrics Views: UK Elections June 8

Not so long ago, the result was a ho-hum affair with the Tories expected to increase their majority. Now? Not so easy because there are some complications.

Firstly, without a doubt, Labour has pulled back ground. The question is how much?

This leads to the second complication: the reliability of the polls.

After Brexit showed UK’s polling methods suspect, we are seeing a host of new, untried approaches. The result is the UK polls are all over the place. For example:

  • The Telegraph has the Tories ahead, with Labour breathing down their necks. (Figure 1)
  • On May 31, YouGov produces a poll showing a hung parliament! in their latest poll, YouGov has the Tories at 42% (304 seats) and Labour at 36% (266 seats).
  • The polls using the ‘old’ methods have the conservatives ahead- but within the margin of error i.e. too close to call.

From a trader’s point of view, the GBP pairs, especially the GBPUSD, will move down unless the Tories retain at least 330 seats.

Let’s see what happens.

FIGURE 1 Telegraph Poll Averages

FIGURE 2 Parliamentary Seats

Paradigm Shift

BarroMetrics Views: Paradigm Shift

Of Mice and Men generated some emails. I was surprised; I didn’t anticipate the response.

I’ll look to answer the questions raised.  One batch was similar to Omran’s – why change when the process is making money? Because as traders we need to improve – you can bet our competitors won’t and if we don’t change and get better, they will leave us behind. Tudor Jones, for example, is now embracing AI. At one point, Tudor believed that men were better than machines. But over time, his views have changed.

Another theme was the difference between the two approaches.

In one sense, there was no difference: my first principle is ‘protection of capital’. That idea runs true for both approaches. The difference is, with that achieved, how do we go about producing superior returns.

There is a direct relationship between timeframe and size of return. The shorter the timeframe, the smaller the average win. Consequently, we need a high win rate.

The major difference between the two is found in that idea. In short-term timeframes, we need to:

  • Take profits more quickly and
  • Be more aggressive when managing our trades – to ensure that once in profit, we don’t let the trade turn into a loss.
  • The above ensures a high win-rate.

For example, in the EURUSD entry I failed to take, I’d have been stopped out after having exited some positions at the first target. Still, the result for the trade would have been a gain of 64 pips for every 600K taken. That’s a reasonable return when you consider that the trade failed to get to the 2nd target – the one I call the ‘core profit’ exit.

The final difference between the two styles is the amount of time spent in front of the screen. Undoubtedly, the shorter timeframe is more exhausting. I am going to have to lose weight and exercise more!

Of Mice and Men

BarroMetrics Views: Of Mice and Men

“The bestlaid plans of mice and men often go awry” (Robert Burns).

This month I went to live-testing of a new (for me) approach to trading. It’s quite a departure from my usual style. My style has been based on the 18-day swing, (monthly trend). And, my aim has been to hold positions until a 13-week (quarterly trend) line turn.

The new strategy holds positions usually for no more than three days; the first exit is usually in a matter of hours.

In this test period, I have been trading half-position size, generated a 71.43 win rate and a 6.37% ROI. (Full size 12.74%). Annualised that ROI would be much better than my average, around 25% p.a.

To say, I’m very happy would be putting it mildly. So, how did the best-laid go astray?

Well, I had planned to take every signal, unless I had a good reason not to. Yesterday, I had decided not to take trades because of Memorial Day in the US. I thought it unlikely that there would be sufficient range to generate the first exit.

I should also mention my FX day ends at 17:00 EST and begins at 17:01 EST.

The EURUSD set up nicely for a sell signal. I went to bed reasonably early and actually got up at around 4:00 am. I had a quick gander at the EURUSD, and it was dead as a dodo. So I went back to bed thinking to place the entry and initial stop around 7:00 am this morning.

Only problem?

At 5:00 am (17:00 EST), the EURUSD triggered the sell and got to first exit later in the day. Under my rules, I have missed the trade and will wait for the next one. Natch on a backtesting basis, the trade would be counted as one that (at least) got to the first exit.

I post this because it’s a reminder that backtesting merely provides data of positive expectancy. It’s still up to us to execute. And because we are human, there’s many a slip between the cup and the lip. (And next time, I’ll stay up until 5:00 a.m. and then place my order!)

 

 

Is China Turning Japanese?

BarroMetrics Views: Is China Turning Japanese?

That’s today’s FT ‘Big Read’ on page 7. I’ll let you read the article for yourselves. One thing is clear: the advantage of being 71 with full mental faculties is you see how true is the statement – the more things change, the more they remain the same.

I began taking an interest in politics when I was 14 (1961). You can thank JFK for that. At that time, the Soviet Union was all the rage. The talk was how it would overhaul the US and how (and why) the one-party state would prove superior to a republic protection individual rights.

Then in the mid-1980s’, the talk was all about Japan – how its system was overhauling free enterprise.

Both the Soviet Union and Japan failed at the same time (`1991). The bottom line is the effect of economic laws can be postponed but not avoided.

Today, it’s the turn of China, and sadly, the USA.

The FT article about China is a classic example of why this time it will be different – it always is until it isn’t.  At least FT, unlike the 1960s and 1980’s gives some reasons why this time it may not be.

At the other end of the political spectrum is the USA: same argument, this time we have the tools to make it different. We’ll see. The FED now needs to unwind its accumulated balance sheet without spooking the markets and without creating a major recession (unwinding may lead to high inflation which leads to unexpectedly high interest rates which lead to a recession). If the recession comes during the Trump presidency, no doubt he’ll be blamed for a recession/depression that was in the making before he took office.

That’s why I have shortened my trading timeframe. I don’t want to be caught in a 1987 type crash.