IDkitLog for traders

I am pleased to announce that Ana Wang has configured a new site to bring to traders   news events and relevant posts.

This is an offshoot of Facebook which is in the form of ‘Become a Fan.’ You need to join Facebook first, if not already a member.

Then  you go to the Facebook icon and click hereunder, and then search for IDkitLog.  Once you find it,  click  to Become a Fan.  This is all you need to do to be part of IDkitLog.

IDkit

www.tradingsuccess.com

Ana Wang's Facebook profile

Click the icon above to open up Facebook URL.

 

Thank you for your kind support of IDkitLog.

 

 

US President’s Day

 

 

US President’s Day

February 13, 2009 – 7:00 pm US Presidents Day, officially known as Washington’s Birthday, is a federal holiday in the United States and is celebrated on the third Monday of February. In 2009, Presidents Day falls on February 16.

Although it has become known as a great weekend for sales, especially on cars, there’s a lot more to the holiday. Presidents Day is a good chance to learn more about American History, civic responsibility and even U.S. Geography. The site below can help you celebrate and have some fun.

George Washington

Presidents Day was originally designated in honor of George Washington’s birthday and is still legally called “Washington’s Birthday.” The first president of the United States was born on February 22, 1732

presidents-day-2009-schedule.xls

‘Postmortem’ of weekend seminar @ SMU

 Cross ref:

http://awanginvest.com/?p=686

 Saturday is not exactly a good day to report by 8.15 am for registration at the SMU.  To my surprise, the majority turned up punctually.  The typhoon in HK last Friday did prevent our two attendees Alan and Annmeis from taking off till the next day ie Saturday arriving in Singapore too late for the seminar. 

 So our mentor switched contents so that our HK attendees would not miss the most important topics, the Psychology part.  Somehow on the first day, the energy level was low, partly because the topic was more on technical analysis.

 On the second day Sunday, the seminar started at 9am since all the registration was done on the first day except for two from HK, two others from HK took off before the typhoon struck and attended both days.  When our two late HK class mates walked in, we blamed it on ‘an act of God’! 

 The class became alive on the second day with more participants posing questions to our mentor.  The momentum built up so much that our mentor forgot to take a rest on his high stool.  So I would say the seminar was a great success to have drawn out the typical shy Singaporean students, so to speak!  Our mentor worked best when there is flow of energy back to him.

Soon it was 5pm, time for roundup of the weekend seminar and the usual appreciation all round. 

I have been lucky to get the service of a professional photographer Raspal to take a group picture of the Class of 8’08 which to my mind has been a great success.

Upon reaching home, I received some testimonials which support my review:

Excerpts of two :

 1. From Moira Coops: Thank you both so very much for including me in the course this week end.  I really did learn a great deal. Ray is an incredible teacher and does such a great job of delivering knowledge  I was totally impressed and engaged….

I found that I really have been making some big mistakes, ie ignoring a problem hoping it would disappear  when in actual fact I should focus on it and make a plan and then take action….

I can only make a start now and hope that some one will check on me to see that I am staying on task and continuing with the commitment to making those changes needed in order to become successful.

2. From Lim Say Leong:It was a very interesting journey we went through over the last two days.  I always feel that trading shares is a way of making money but has never been able to consistently made a success out of it.  Many a times I make but lost it back due to a lack of stops and do not know when to sell.  You have given me a system and this I will treasure with care.

I must also thank my friend and diplomat Mrs Tula Montoya, wife of the Ambassador of Peru, and her son and daughter who graced the occasion.  However, they had to leave early on the second day.

Our poor  mentor, when leaving SMU, suddenly had an attack of spasm in his hip – just two months after THR !  He was on his feet for two whole days without taking rest at intervals to sit on his high stool!  With rest over-night, he is back to normal today, almost! So I offered to continue his blog for another day or two.

ANA aka IDKIT

Ag Moderator

The US$ and the Stock Market

I had taken the view that the US Stock Market would continue rising because the economy was awash with liquidity. I argued that since housing prices in the US had entered a bear phase, the only home for the surplus funds was stock market. I had further postulated that the bear market in US stocks would not begin until the FEDS raised rates; raise rates they would when the liquidity became reflected in the inflation figures. I had expected this to occur from March 2008. In the meantime, I had been looking for a new high.

With this idea as a background, I went long the ES on Nov 28 when the market provided a setup and trigger at the Primary Buy Zone.

This post sends up an amber flag to the context of my trade. The problem is the US$.

Lately everywhere I turn I find a piece on the possibility of the some country moving away from the US$ as its reserve currency or some talk about some country abolishing their US$ peg. At the same time, US officials are attempting to jaw bone up the currency.

At this stage, there seems to be little more than talk. The text following the Arab conference this weekend will probably produce little indication of the Arab states outlook but certainly any suggestion that Dubai and/or Saudi Arabia will decouple from the US$ will have adverse consequences on the dollar; consequences that would impact on my liquidity argument.

Add to this the the possibility that a creditor nation/nations now holding US$ debt decide that the US$ decline means they ought to liquidate their portfolio in whole or in part and you have possibility that the FEDS will be forced to raise rates earlier than expected to stop the US$ from free falling.

As I said, all scenarios: abandonment of the US$ as the reserve currency, liquidation of US debt portfolios, decoupling of US$ pegs, all belong to the ‘possible’ rather than the ‘probable’ realm. Nevertheless, it would be wise to keep an eye half cocked for any signs that the possible becomes the probable.