The Penultimate Session!

Owing to the long Easter Weekend recently, Ray feels he should make up for the loss of two sessions the students missed.  So last night was the penultimate session when he gave a brief lecture to cover the process of putting on a trade.  From the questions he put to them, some are still foggy about certain KRPs for example.

The last session will be held on Thursday night when we intend to close early so that the students can have some kind of party as initiated by cheeky student Paul Shew. If I know him, he has some surprise up his sleeves and we will certainly close the session with a Big Bang!

BTW Singapore is going to the polls on Saturday and I do not have to vote as my Tanjong Pagar GRC is a walkover under the leadership of  First PM Lee Kuan Yew, now Minister Mentor Lee.

Speaking of elections, did you know that our Mentor Trader Ray Barros entered politics in 1977 in the Australian GE?  He was standing for Macarthur constituency for the Workers Party, more a Tea Party philosophy of Ayn Rand unlike our  Workers Party.   To his surprise he garnered the highest votes among the Independents.   Not bad.  We should ask him why he gave politics up after this victory?  perhaps at the party?

 

Here are some video clips to help   fill the gaps of learning for  the students in their revision:

Tubbs Model

http://youtu.be/qVi9xKearFk

KRPs

http://youtu.be/R-AatWzwLRg

More on KRPs

http://youtu.be/gKTE0nAp40s

On using MA6

http://youtu.be/xGom_FkezjE

On trend change

http://youtu.be/zsRnn4REu_Q

Zone

http://youtu.be/N4JqsNo3a1E

Neg dev , Contraction

http://youtu.be/_OPlYrNUwIY

Contraction setups

http://youtu.be/vwfz9bSRS1c

Setup bar

http://youtu.be/L41344dxEF0

Simple v complex corrections

http://youtu.be/3uPcOIr9dzQ

Normal volume v range

http://youtu.be/_PvoftjWuM0

Advice

http://youtu.be/0rVUmCFybow

Conviction bars

http://youtu.be/MhEEM3IXWEs

On putting stops

http://youtu.be/ivJL4QEZ_FM

ATR for day trades

http://youtu.be/LLNmWjED2Bo

Risks

http://youtu.be/2t3BzojEiLo

Student Irene speaks on her take

http://youtu.be/hHBK52Fm80Y

IDkit aka Ana

Ag Moderator

Ray on Riding Volatility @ Capital Tower for Phillips Securities

Cross ref. www.anatrader.com

The talk yesterday was sponsored by Phillips Securities @ Capital Tower.  As it was a Saturday, it was gratifying to see a good turnout to listen to Ray Barros, who is a popular invited speaker in the Singapore trading circuit.

While  some in the audience have heard Ray speak on many occasions, there were many who heard him for the first time although they were familiar with his face,  as he is often on CNBC as a guest presenter.

There emerged at this presentation one tiny  discourtesy interrupting the opening address of the speaker which is not only annoying to others but an exhibition of bad manners.  I have been to some presentations by Western speakers and this kind of display of bad manners would have resulted in the expulsion of the attendee by the speaker.

Some of our attendees need to learn how to comply with some basic courtesy to a speaker without interrupting while the speaker is presenting his talk.  After the presentation during Q&A, would be the appropriate moment to field questions to the speaker without interrupting the trend of thought of the speaker.

Apart from this instance  of display of bad manners,  the audience  participated whole-heartedly at the session with good humour.

Here are some video clips of the session to share.

Vittorio speaks

http://youtu.be/xtuvBzic6y0

Sherly speaks

http://youtu.be/MsQ-ejV0Q7A

Jasmine speaks

http://youtu.be/x_x9uivaB_A

Ann C speaks

http://youtu.be/-tOe7ZnL89o

Singapore  Inflation

http://youtu.be/WYjDSvGRr2c

S&P

http://youtu.be/O0yZTugTFWo

FOMC

http://youtu.be/ydCvOdZmhZA

QE2

http://youtu.be/GVGU-xDXHqs

Inflation

http://youtu.be/N_pMIDQ1nR0

What moves markets

http://youtu.be/ovgkNpzqjmE

Idkit aka Ana

Ag Moderator

Thursday close for the Hand-holding Week

 Cross ref:   www.anatrader.com

TGIF!  Thursday night is the last hand-holding session for the week  for HOS students.

As I spoke with students privately,  there emerge some common denominators among many of the students.  Except for a minority who are role model students, the rest are having hiccups in spite of their attending religiously at the hand-holding sessions the past weeks.

As I reiterate in my recent  blogs,  it is more effective if students were to attend hand-holding sessions on alternate sessions rather than to squeeze into successive nights whenever there was a vacant seat.  Most are working during the day and the only time they can read, revise and come up with Q&As is the next night after attendance at hand-holding sessions.  I observe there are a few who attend all the hand-holding sessions whenever they can squeeze into  vacant slots,  which is all well and good, except that they have failed to devote the time to do their homework, an essential part to the learning process of HOS to inculcate good habits of success.

Having said this,  a few model students  have managed to show great progress  simply because they  have discipline  to take  baby steps to read, revise and constantly revise notes, recordings etc to grasp the basic principles taught at the HOS seminar.  There you are, the Coyle concept  about reducing  your learning process time is working,  if you apply what you are being taught by mentor Ray.

Here are more video clips to reinforce  revisions.

Focus on entry bar

http://youtu.be/QIeseeTxM9g

Negative Development trade

http://youtu.be/8xL_Qerp-3k

Stop!

http://youtu.be/tQuJfIHJSVU

Fine pointers on Stops

http://youtu.be/JmVDR33Zwbs

Buying on stop

http://youtu.be/DQxo0RMO0Pc

Interview clip with Teng Yong

http://youtu.be/rsOoSUCGOm8

Interview with Vincent

http://youtu.be/3lS6zenneYY

Have a long good weekend with Labour Day on Monday.  However, hand-holding sessions for next week, the last week, will be on Monday and Thursday nights.

Your well-wisher.

Idkit aka Ana

Ag Moderator

Hand-holding HOS Coming to a Close

Cross ref:  www.anatrader.com
As the  HOS hand-holding sessions are coming to  a close by next week after another long Labour Day weekend holiday in Singapore,  students are serious with more  Q&As as evident in the video clips.

Some students are offering feedbacks on the HOS course  which are reproduced as clips hereunder.

Interview with Aileen

http://youtu.be/m-MafVJMq7U

Interview with Mano

http://youtu.be/a-9s5ewjMsM

Students Q&As video clips

About 4th attempt

http://youtu.be/oFCtW_f9CrE

V-bottoms.tops

http://youtu.be/kXtbBP1pfec

V-bottoms

http://youtu.be/C66u1x1X9I8

Reading market

http://youtu.be/dMHC8be5oTQ

Correlation

 http://youtu.be/T_OyWh19NI8

Trading Fx pairs – Eur/Stg

http://youtu.be/rE1ajdX4CiY

Reading  strengths of Fax pairs

http://youtu.be/JntxsT1ClDU

Favour Eur/Stg trader

http://youtu.be/KvzesUQMC8o

Trigger bar = ATR

http://youtu.be/OWvzLQUFU9M

Bullish bar

http://youtu.be/SFlqZGfnlfQ

Benchmark swings

http://youtu.be/mAnlx_itA90

SW v Trending markets

http://youtu.be/UyZXaTxd_Ew

More TF

http://youtu.be/cYie7GCQyPU

Identifying TFs

http://youtu.be/fAMVL5jm5B4

Importance of benchmark swings

http://youtu.be/l9k5fa6VM0E

From the hand-holding sessions, what emerge is that the HOS is not easy to digest for complete novices.   Like any serious profession,  the students must have a good foundation at least of the trading terms by reading generally  even before the HOS course commenced.  To this end,  the ebook: A-Trading Compendium to BarroMetrics has been recommended reading.

More details at

htpp://www.anatrader.com

Your wellwisher

Idkit ak Ana

Ag Moderator

Hand-holding on 4th Week for HOS Students

Cross ref

http://anatrader.com/?p=642

With the long Easter weekend, hand-holding sessions resumed last night with full house, the energy was unbelieveable!

Here are some video clips to show the continuing hand-holding by Ray Barros to his HOS students.

Fx pair

http://youtu.be/iGo0DovC9yk

Eur  Stg

http://youtu.be/zWeyD5h95vk

Tips on Journaling

http://youtu.be/1wvC9paYYmo

Trend channels drawing

http://youtu.be/PD5HWH0PvfQ

Drawing trend lines

http://youtu.be/76YRzLNJEVM

Thinking in scenarios

http://youtu.be/SY6FoA4KdGo

Second room students

http://youtu.be/D-vNJxOkaOQ

A short clip on feedback by student Siew Kiang

http://youtu.be/JHjHVAxRBUg

More soon.

Idkit aka Ana

Ag Moderator

Cashflow today!

Cross ref:

http://anatrader.com/?p=632

Ray on Cashflow Today

Today is not a holiday in Singapore  but not so in HK, Australia, or in the West where Easter is celebrated right up to Monday!

Still CNBC is round the clock and Cashflow is on although a bit quiet.

Here are the  video clips for today :

Charting The Volatility

Mon. Apr. 25 2011 | 11:19 AM[02:12]

Ray Barros, CEO at Ray Barros Trading Group, advises investors to look at the technical trends right now and believes that there’s still man…

Bullish On Precious Metals

Mon. Apr. 25 2011 | 11:08 AM[08:49]

Jurg Kiener, CEO of Swiss Asia Capital, believes that there’s still more upside for gold & silver prices.

Trading Strategies Ahead Of Bernanke’s Speech

Mon. Apr. 25 2011 | 10:00 AM[05:49]

Hans Goetti, CIO Asia at Finaport Phone, says Asian markets could outperform developed markets in second half of the year.

FOMC Statement Preview

Mon. Apr. 25 2011 | 12:10 PM[04:45]

Tey Tze Ming, market strategist at Saxo Capital Markets, says there will be no drastic moves by the Federal Reserve this week.

It is worth bearing in  mind  FOCM is  due April 27, 12:30 PM EST and its effect on the S&P and other markets.

Idkit aka Ana

Ag Moderator

Summing up HOS Sessions Todate

Cross ref

http://anatrader.com/?p=603Summing up for Third Week Sessions

Tomorrow is Good Friday and as some may wish to take the long weekend off, sessions will resume next Tuesday.

For last night,  all students were expected to try to do the whole process of putting on an intraday trade of any major currency pair.  Here are video clips of students, many struggling with lack of confidence.

Student on his own

http://youtu.be/GO13cO1JNuA

1 Period Swing

http://youtu.be/iogD_xwLFlw

Ron’s analysis

http://youtu.be/yTQuOIMK9yY

Aileen’s analysis

http://youtu.be/rqPlBvSvOOg

Move on

http://youtu.be/DZ5_4uX8GHg

Trying hard

http://youtu.be/XvvjDwbCElE

Ray’s summing up

http://youtu.be/joYPDt8I5cg

Gut feel

http://youtu.be/PiXERtGQ99o

High/Low Probability trades

http://youtu.be/LnApAUeP1GU

Majors/ Crosses of Fx

http://youtu.be/kE4yx3X19ac

About QE2

http://youtu.be/eJIfomzgRtE

Parabolic Move

http://youtu.be/1y7TP7LidV4

Takeways:

1. This week’s sessions are learning periods for students

2.Many are still struggling with the basic foundation of the course due to :

3.Failure to focus on revising to internalize the basic principles taught

4.Not taking baby steps towards understanding course materials, recordings and video clips of their own performances

5.Information overload with extraneous materials read  instead of focusing on the course materials

6.Not giving themselves time to revise and learn in between nights of hand-holding sessions.

More:

1.Cross currencies simply refer to currency pairs, or crosses, that do not involve the US Dollar.  As the US Dollar is the most heavily traded currency in the Forex market, one can think of cross currencies as being more obscure than the major currency pairs.

Behind the US Dollar, the Euro and the Japanese Yen are heavily traded and often held as reserve currencies by various nations.  As such, several Euro- and Yen-based crosses exist, including: EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, CHF/JPY, EUR/CHF (CHF being the Swiss Franc), EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD, and EUR/NZD.

2.Foundation reading is recommended and you have one ebook  specially written for HOS students:  please check at  www.anatrader.com for A-Trading Compendium to BarroMetrics.

3.Make the best of the remaining 10 days or so to catch up on your reading, revisions and to ask relevant questions that are uppermost in your mind at next week’s hand-holding sessions while our mentor is still freely available to you.

Students of HOS should have received the link to the recordings  in the first week of April which has been updated each week and remains the same link for recordings.

These are my own observations and our mentor may comment or add more.

Have a Happy Easter weekend

Your well-wisher

Amb-Dame Anna

IDKIT,Ag Moderator

NEVER be Late!

Those who are associates or students of Ray Barros will know he is a real stickler for punctuality. Perhaps, there is good reason to be punctual, too.

Here is  the moral of the  story :

A priest was being honored at his retirement dinner after 25 years in the parish. A leading local politician and member of the congregation was chosen to make the presentation and to give a little speech at the dinner. However, he was delayed, so the priest decided to say his own few words while they waited:

“I got my first impression of the parish from the first confession I heard here. I thought I had been assigned to a terrible place. The very first person who entered my confessional told me he had stolen a television set and, when questioned by the police, was able to lie his way out of it. He had stolen money from his parents, embezzled from his employer, had an affair with his boss’s wife, taken illegal drugs, and sold his sister’s jewelry to buy a gun. I was appalled.

“But as the days went on I learned that my people were not all like that and I had, indeed, come to a fine parish full of good and loving people….”

Just as the priest finished his talk, the politician arrived, full of apologies at being late. He immediately began to make the presentation and gave his talk:

“I’ll never forget the first day our parish priest arrived,”said the politician. “In fact, I had the honor of being the first person to go to him for confession.”

LOL!

Idkit aka Ana

Ag Moderator

ANNOUNCEMENTS for the week April 4

HOS Hand-holding for 4 x 4 weeks

Ray will be conducting hand-holding for the first batch of HOS students commencing on Monday April 4 2011 , 4 times a week for 4 weeks at the Traders Round Table, Pomo.

ray-energy.gif

CASHFLOW, CNBC @ 11AM HK/SIN TIME

Ray will be presenting for Cashflow, CNBC on Tuesday, April 5 2011.  Send in your questions to Cashflow if you are watching.

IDKIT aka Ana

Ag Moderator

A Case for Austrian Economics

Cross ref:

http://anatrader.com/?p=417

I refer to my post :Austrian v Keynesian Ecnomics a few days ago.  Here is why Austrian economics is preferred.  We’ ll see.

Princeton Economist: Why Don’t My Equations Work?

By Vedran Vuk

Yesterday, I mentioned the futility of utilizing mathematical equations to model economics and the social sciences. Here’s a great example of what I’m talking about in a Bloomberg article by Alan Krueger, professor of Economics at Princeton:

From late 2008 to the end of 2009, the U.S. unemployment rate jumped by 3.1 percentage points. What was so shocking about this was that the relationship between unemployment and the drop in the gross domestic product during the recession would have predicted only a 1.2 percentage point increase. This was the largest forecasting error in decades.

Since then, the baffling moves have been in the opposite direction, with unemployment falling from 9.8 percent in November to 9.4 percent in December. Since then, the unemployment rate has dropped even further, to 8.9 percent in February. We’ll get the March figures tomorrow.

Regardless of whether the rate ticked up or down, the 1.2 percentage point drop in the unemployment rate from its peak in 2009 is a puzzle because economic growth hasn’t been strong enough to generate such a large decline.

Let me translate. Krueger put variables into his math equations. The number that came out on the other end had nothing to do with reality. How shocking!

Actually, it’s not shocking at all to anyone who realizes that the social sciences are not physics. One can’t plug numbers into an equation and actually expect results to reflect reality. Economic variables and their relationships are always changing. Furthermore, the economy is the complete opposite of a controlled experiment. It’s a chaotic storm of different variables and factors determining an uncertain future.

Now, of course, economic modeling has some value. At Casey Research, we clearly use mathematics for all sorts of things. However, an equation alone will never determine our investment recommendations. Unlike Princeton’s Alan Krueger, we are not shocked to find that math models fail to meet reality.

Despite these obstacles, many investment companies rely more heavily on mathematical models, and they can do so at their own risk. The real problem occurs when national decisions are based on the same approach and decision-makers have the utmost trust in a fallible system. Do you remember the promise that the bailouts and stimulus were supposed to keep unemployment below 8%? How do you think they came up with that number?

If an investor messes up an equation, they’ll get hurt. If the Federal Reserve and government mess up an equation, everyone gets hurt. Despite much advancement in econometric techniques, economics isn’t an exact science and never will be.

Simply put, there are no equations that can consistently predict future economic events. If this wasn’t true, Bernanke would not have been recruited for the Fed position from a professor post. Instead, the Fed would have begged him to give up his life of luxury as a billionaire.

www.CaseyResearch.com