Published in January 19th, 2009
One of the more underestimated tools in a trader’s tool box is the decision-making model he employs. And yet, decision-making is central to our ability to make money. In the next series of blogs, I shall be introducing a decision-making model that I use.
A model is made up of two parts:
A theory that is subsequently […]
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Published in January 16th, 2009
Tonight I shall conclude the series by highlighting the importance of managing a trade by preparing for possible market outcomes.
Entry for this trade was the directional bar close below the Primary Sell Zone following a RePo setup. Entry on the close of Jan 9 2009 was at 882.75. Since all other stops would have been […]
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Published in January 15th, 2009
The S&P market broke down last night invalidating Tuesday’s buy setup and at the same time confirming that the bears are in control. Normalized volume expanded with the down move and market closed in the bottom 25% of the range - showing strong bearish conviction.
However, the fact that the S&P has had 6 consecutive down […]
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Published in January 14th, 2009
Tonight I want to examine the short-term technical picture on the S&P.
A 5-day sell signal was triggered within an 18-day (monthly) down trend on Jan 9 2009. Figure 1 shows that yesterday we had relatively high volume and a below average range day. What this means is yesterday, the buyers were able to support […]
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Published in January 13th, 2009
In the comments on ‘Day Trade?”, I posted a question Gadi e-mailed me. In this blog, I’ll answer what I meant in my Dec 29 Blog.
The Dec 29 blog had to be taken within the context of the blogs I had been writing, including my comments on the Xmas rally. This is a setup I […]
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Published in January 12th, 2009
In my travels, I meet many a day-trader who trades this time frame because he believes he is undercapitalised for trading overnight positions. In other words, the only reason he day-trades is because he believes his capital base will not support overnight margins. In my view, this is the worst possible reason for trading this […]
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Published in January 10th, 2009
As the US piles up its deficit spending, another factor enters the interest rates equation. To fund its spending, the US grows ever more reliant on the purchase of its securities by foreign governments. One of its biggest purchasers is China. Now the US is facing problems on that front.
In the first place, […]
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Published in January 8th, 2009
Rick asked: “Were the above your reasons for exiting the position? Since your preferred trading time frame is the 18D, can I say that your exit was on the last 1/3 of your position as along the way, you should have taken out 2/3 of your positions?”
To answer the question, there are a number of […]
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Published in January 7th, 2009
When last I visited the 30 Years, I had covered the shorts I had initiated on a 13-week (quarterly trend) Upthrust Sell Signal (See Nature of Trends). The reason I covered was the strong rally seen in the daily chart from the midpoint of the Sideways Structure marked ABC in Figure 1.
FIGURE 1 12-Month 30-Year […]
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Published in January 6th, 2009
In the past seven blogs, I have been considering the probable economic picture for 2009 and beyond. The question that would arise in my mind is “What will I do about it?”
We certainly can’t stop whatever is coming but we can prepare. One dictum I enjoy is one taken from the US military - the […]
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