BarroMetrics Views: FOMC Wednesday Sept 17
It’s likely that Wednesday’s FOMC (2:00 am EST) and press conference (2:30 EST) will move the stock, precious metals and FX markets.
The key focus will be on whether the words ‘for some considerable time’ (rates to remain to low for some considerable time) will be omitted, altered or left untouched.
Leaving the words in will suggest that there will be little probability of an accelerated rate increase; omission or alteration suggests an earlier rate rise. Time to see if the FX traders or Stock players will be correct.
Today the FX markets were relatively quiet. We either saw inside days or a small reversal of the near term direction e.g.
- USDJPY, EURUSD, USDCAD inside days,
- GBPUSD GBP continued its retreat from the recent bear market rally, and
- the USDCHF USD had an outside day with an up close; range was normal. This pair has been stuck in a 5-day trading range.
I expect to see another quiet day today ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC. Will the words be left in? If not for Yellen, I say no. But, given her views and the fact she is Fed chief, I’d say there is a 50-50 bet that they will be. We’ll see 2:00 PM EST Sept 17.