FOMC 2015-03-19

BarroMetrics Views: FOMC 2015-03-19

I have to admit that I am full of admiration for the way the FED handled the FOMC decision. It was faced with delivering a result that would:

  • Halt the USD momentum and not spike down the US stock market (i.e. imply there would be no rate rise or at least delay it)
  • Keep their options open to raising rates in June (in case the BLS employment numbers and CPI continued to move up); and
  • Do this by dropping ‘patient’ and still maintain some degree of credibility and integrity.

Did they succeed? You only need to look at the USD and stock markets to know the answer to that question.

Did the FOMC change any trends? Probably not. I rate it as ‘surprise’ event i.e. after a few days, prices will resume the original trend:

  • for stocks grinding up (and threatening to break); 
  • USD up 
  • Gold seeking to make a bottom.
  • Crude Oil – not sure on this one. Before FOMC, it may have been forming a bottom in the 18d – the decision merely gave the process a boost. Let’s see what happens.