BarroMetrics Views: LiveStreaming and the AUDUSD
I am giving a presentation on April 15 for Oanda, and had told a number of readers that I would be livestreaming the event. Unfortunately, the prohibitive venue costs at Suntec make the streaming a ‘no-no’. My apologies for disappointing those who were looking forward to it.
Turning to the AUDUSD.
For those willing to take a position ahead of the RBA decision at 2:30 pm today (AEST), the ‘less than consensus’ Non-Farm Payrolls provided an excellent opportunity to short the AUDUSD.
The consensus is for the RBA to cut the Aussie rate. In this case, I agree – we should see a cut. The economic news from China has been of a slowing economy, particularly copper prices. The Australian economy is heavily dependent on Chinese buying, and as the Chinese economy has slowed, so too has the Australian.
The RBA is caught between fear of creating a housing bubble (at present property prices are in a perpendicular rise), and deflation. But, given the recenet Chinese data, I see it as having little choice but to cut rates.
In addition, the RBA has made no secret that it would like to see the AUDUSD around 0.7500. It may be a case of be careful for what you wish.
So far the 12-M and 13-w support (around .7680 to .7540) has been holding. There is little by way of support below these levels. So, if we see the zone buckle, 0.6700 in quick time would not surprise.
If not already short, what to do?
I don’t favour placing orders ‘ahead of a number’. For me, I’d rather wait for the ‘number’ to come out, and then look for a spot to take a position. Stops would be above the .7727 with a target around 0.6700.