BarroMetrics Views: NFP 2014-12-05: A Post Mortem
The BLS was kind to me – it produced the numbers I was expecting (in fact better than expected).
The question that must be asked, if may theory is correct and John Williams’ belief that the distorted numbers need a ‘catch-up’, when may we expect the ‘catch-up’ to occur?
I believe we’ll see that in the Jan 2015 release. Politics ought to be quiet for the Xmas break as should the markets. This will be the ideal time to spring ‘bad news’. My expectations will be for a number less than consensus but contained by the low of the consensus range. What these numbers may be we’ll look at in Jan. 2015.
Turning to the actual NFP number……
Figure 1 shows the BLS figures (the red line is the current headline number) and the ShadowStats Alternate. What we see is a precipitous drop in the BLS line and the SSA holding stats. How can this be?
Attached is a summary of what John had to say about the November numbers. By the way, if you have any interest in seeing the true picture behind the BLS reports, you can do no better than spend US$175.00 for a year’s subscription. And no, I have no financial interest in your taking up a subscription. (To subscribe: http://www.shadowstats.com/subscriptions)
I’ll be keen to see what this week’s AMB Fred graph. You will recall that the last issue saw a US$2B drop in reserves. If we continue to see a drop, we can expect to see a rise in the Feb or Mar inflation numbers; and a drop in the S&P (?)
FIGURE 1 Unemployment