BarroMetrics Views: ORSS Final Day
This is the final day for ORSS at SGD887.00. If you are thinking of joining the community, act today. You will have another chance in November because I have entered into an agreement with the CMI group to make ORSS available to their clients – for SGD1200.00. This is an increase 35% on the current investment.
Today, I’ll post some of the questions posted to the blog. Many questions are worth a repost especially since many don’t read the comments:
Q1: I agree that the ORSS package is a very good offer.
On a value basis and given your background and ethics I would snap it up but for the fact that I do not believe I would stick with a system that has had 16 losing trades in a row. I would suspect that will be a problem for others as well. I know losses cannot be avoided.
Curious if you have had feedback along similar lines from others.
A1. Turning now to the issue you raised about consecutive losses…..
*The theoretical losing streak is 9.4, say 10.
*The theoretical probability of a 16 consecutive loss is ‘0?%
So, the 16 consecutive losses is an outlier – BUT it did happen in the testing period. Probably a situation where the assumptions behind the system changed for that period.
ORSS students would be taught when to suspend trading the system and when to restart. The questions for those who take up the system is whether they can accept the max theoretical consecutive loss.
I did receive a two enquiries along your lines. I gave the same reply.
Can you expand on:
“Probably a situation where the assumptions behind the system changed for that period”.
No comprende Amigo.
A2: Every mechanical system assumes an underlying condition; if that changes and you are unaware of the change, losses follow; e.g. the quants in 2007 crash lost a bomb because their assumptions about 2-way markets and volatility were no longer operating.
ORSS assumes that when the opening range (however defined) breaches one extreme, 80% to 90% of the time, the opposite extreme will hold. It also assumes that diversification of instruments is in play.
If these assumptions change, and you are not attuned to the changes, you set yourself up for ‘black swan’ series of consecutive losses.
Q3: For this ORSS system,
1) Do I need to use special software like Market Analyst? Can I use MT4? For MT4, depends on which time that the chart is using (NY or UK time), the daily chart may have 5 or 6 candles per week, is that OK with ORSS system?
2) I saw the expectancy data that you have shown in your video. I would like to know on average how many trades we have in a year for markets that you have tested
A3: 1) You need not use MA. If you know how to code MT4, you could code what you need for MT4. Otherwise you can manually draw what you need on your platform (you draw 4 lines).
2) About 10 trades pa per instrument.
Q4: (Paraphrasing 3 questions into 1): Does ORSS work for all trends, up down and SW?
A4: ORSS’ logic enables it to return a positive expectancy in all types of trends i.e. Yes to your question.
It does have a weakness: where there is a buying or selling climax that is followed by a low volatility sideways market. For this reason, the simple rules I created avoid trading in this environment.
That’s it folks. The end of a series that has produced interesting comments and much interaction. Thank you all for taking part.