Consequences Protectionism: Trade War – Black Swan? (2)

BarroMetrics Views: Consequences Protectionism

The image heading this blog fairly well sets out the general consequences, costs go up, supply goes down, and as a result, prices go up.

But, in the current context, there are two very consequences:

  1. Possible mini-trade war with US allies.
  2. A trade war with China

The tariffs would not be aimed specifically at China. As such, they would hit Canada, Germany, South Korea, Turkey and Mexico more than China. Undoubtedly, they would react in kind.

Also, the EU trade commissioner, Cecilia Malmstrom, has warned that the EU would have to respond.

If Trump does impose tariffs that affect China, can you see it not responding? I can’t. So, add China to the list above.

A world trade war, at this delicate juncture, could send stock markets tumbling at a rate that no amount of QE would halt.

Let’s see what happens.

Image credits: action institute

An Event For Your Trading Improvement!

BarroMetrics Views: An Event For Your Trading Improvement!

Tomorrow, I’ll conclude “Trade War – Black Swan?“. I was going to do it today, but we have been inundated with questions about July 5. I’ll answer those questions now.

The objective on July 5 to leave the participants with a trading process that will improve their results. We’re looking to achieve this by:

  • providing the needed ideas and theory. The ideas that have served me when managing the private-partnership hedge fund (1990 to 2010) and my own trading.
  • illustrating the ideas with real-time trading at the presentation; and
  • providing the tools to apply the ideas.

The ideas will cover the “3 Biggest Mistakes Traders Make” and how to avoid them. Without giving the presentation away, I think it’s safe to say that at least one is not normally associated with trading. Yet, the failure to address this issue just about guarantees failure.

We’ll be trading the markets live. On this blog, I posted about the system we’ll be using. It’s ideal for the presentation: short-term with an amazing expectancy return. And no, I won’t be presenting its rules.  I will be using it to show the process all successful traders (in one form or another) for their trades. It’s also a process few, if any, losing traders apply.

The psychology for using the system is a simple one: attendees will follow the success process if they associate it with a profitable trade. The research shows we retain 75% of what we practice and only 5% of what we hear.

The tools we’re giving away?

  1. The equity spreadsheet I use to use before I adopted Edgewonk. Indeed, I am still using it because it provides data that Edgewonk does not. We’ll be sending the spreadsheet out before the event.
  2. A trading system using end-of-day data. The reason for this timeframe is I expect most attendees to have full-time jobs. I believe it’s not possible to apply consistently system rules that utilise intra-day data. Only July 8, the system rules will be sent to all registrants together with a ‘how to apply’ video.
  3. A template for a psych journal will be demonstrated at the event.

Here are the registration links:

Live-stream for those who can’t attend the event:

 http://www.barrometrics.com/avoid-3-biggest-mistakes-traders-make-july-2017-livestream

There is an SGD 20.00 (about USD 14.00-15.00) fee for the live-stream.

For those attending in Singapore:

http://www.barrometrics.com/avoid-3-biggest-mistakes-traders-make-july-2017

There is a refundable (on attendance) SGD 20.00 fee for Singapore attendees.

If you are planning to attend: Please register before Tuesday, June 27, to avoid disappointment. We have a live-stream limit of 50 (to ensure

*** Please register before Tuesday, June 27, to avoid disappointment. We have a live-stream limit of 50 (to ensure

We have a live-stream limit of 50 (to ensure quality of projection) and a 100-limit on attendance. We are almost at 50 for the live-stream and over half full for the attendance.

On Tuesday, our joint venture partner Oanda will be inviting their clients, so we expect to be fully booked shortly after that.

Looking forward to catching up with all registrants on July 5!

Image credits: alamy stock photos

Trade War – Black Swan?

BarroMetrics Views: Trade War – Black Swan?

Firstly: we have the numbers for the live-stream! I’ll be sending out the registration link on Monday to all wrote in. Thank you. It will be a fab event. Even without Oanda (our joint venture partner), who will only start their marketing on Tuesday, we are half full for the session in Singapore.

We are already half full; and next week Oanda (our joint venture partner), who will start their marketing on Tuesday. So have a rosy picture for July 5.

Turning to day’s piece…….

As we near one of my possible cycle high dates, I was wondering what event might trigger a sell-off in the markets.

I spotted a possible issue today.

First the context:

For years, the Chinese-US been head-butting about unfair, Chinese steel exporting, practices. The US claims the Chinese are dumping cheap steel onto the world markets. It has been partially successful in stemming entry into the US by filing anti-dumping cases that have resulted in high tariffs. But, it also appears that cheap Chinese steel is circumventing US efforts by using third countries to export to the US.

The Trump Solution

Next week, the word is Trump will use a 1962 law to protect US steel interest:

He’ll declare that the threat to the steel industry constitutes ‘a threat to national security’.

Trump will be using a law passed in 1962 which gave US presidents broad powers to limit imports in the interests of national security. Most importantly, he can do this without Congress. Thus, Trump would achieve his most cherished dream: doing whatever he wants without Congressional oversight.

The word is we’ll see:

  1. A system of quotas and tariffs. Firstly, the steel imports from a country would be frozen at current levels. Then, any imports above these levels would be subject to punitive tariffs; and/or
  2. A broad set of tariffs on all steel imports.

The Consequence

Will have to wait till Monday.

Macro-ops “Playing the Player” 2

BarroMetrics Views: Macro-ops “Playing the Player” 2

Firstly, thanks for the emails and comment regarding the negative expectancy of the backtesting results. The feedback shows someone is reading my blogs! I sometimes wonder.

Apologies for the error when writing up the results. I reversed the Avg@Win and Avg$Loss numbers. The correct numbers are:

  • Avg$Win: 823.00
  • Avg$Loss 360.00

Update on registrations: 5. So, unless we see a pickup, it’s unlikely we’ll proceed (we need 25 more). Thanks to those who have signed up. If you are planning to join, please drop me a line indicating your interest: ramonbarros@tradingsuccess.com

Turning to today’s blog……

Thanks to those who wrote in asking how to apply ‘play the player’.

Frankly, it’s not a question I felt qualified to answer. Luckily, yesterday, Alex replied to that very query. So, I have attached his reply below. In his article, he made an offer to provide a checklist.

If you’d like a copy, I do have a request: please send your requests to the ‘blog comment section’ and not to my email. Thanks, I’d appreciate the cooperation.

By the way, if you like Alex’s pieces, please write to him at alex@micro-ops.com to see how to get onto his subscription list.

2017-06-22 Macro-ops Playing the Player_2

Macro-ops “Playing the Player”

BarroMetrics Views: Macro-ops “Playing the Player”

First, an apology, I forgot to attach the results of the trading method included as a giveaway on July 5. Here it is.

NB: I goofed in the copying the results; I transposed the avg$win and avg$loss. The correct numbers are avg$W: 823, avg$loss 360.

Backtesting

An update: So far we have five expressions of interest for the live streaming. We need 30 to proceed. 

Turning today’s offering……..

Here’s a summary of an interesting investing/trading approach from Macro-ops; it’s a variation on the contrarian sentiment method view. I have also attached the whole article for you.

Here’s a summary of an interesting investing/trading approach from Macro-ops. It’s a variation on the contrarian sentiment method. Also, I have attached the whole article for you.

SUMMARY:

  • Markets are the result of an aggregation of various individuals’ beliefs. The average of these beliefs sets market prices.
  • To play the player, all we need to do is sniff out the most dominant, consensus beliefs and exploit them.
  • This process involves 3 steps
  1.  Identify the dominant beliefs driving markets 
  2. Determine alternative future scenarios that would impact these beliefs and subsequent asset pricing.
  3. Wait for indications to see which scenario is playing out by using price action
  • Reading the financial news is a great way to get a sense of how other players are thinking which informs you of the dominant market belief.
  • To play the player, ask what if the consensus market belief is wrong and then wait to see how the price action and fundamentals unfold

To save you asking, I’m not sure how you can get on their free newsletter as it no longer seems to be available from the site. You can try writing to:

alex@macro-ops.com.

macrops

Image credits: Macro-ops

July 5 – Update

BarroMetrics Views: July 5 – Update

I was hoping to have the URL landing page up on the blog today. But, gremlins struck. While waiting for the solution, I thought it best to see if you there is enough interest from you to run the streaming. We need at least 30 to cover live streaming costs.

Program:

Our objective is to provide a content-rich presentation that will allow attendees to kick start their profitability.

To this end, I’ll be providing live FX trading to illustrate the ideas presented. You’re asked to join in the process because we remember 75% of what we do and only 5% of what we hear.

The content will cover the ‘3 Mistakes Losing Traders Make and what you do to avoid them and join the 10% who win’. 

Here is what you’ll come away with after attending:

  1. A video of the event.
  2. A process for analysing and reviewing your trades.
  3. An equity journal (spreadsheet with macros): to provide the stats you need to improve your trading. Googling for ‘download trading equity journals‘, I found prices ranged from USD 120.00 to USD 200.00
  4. A trading plan (backtesting results attached)
  5. A template for your psych journal.

In short, everything you need to your trading profitable.  An attendee described it as a mini-trading course.

It’s important to understand that the event is a partnership: we provide the information, you provide the action – no action from you, means no benefits.

Details:

  • Date: Wednesday, July 5
  • Time: 19:00 to 22:00 (Singapore) (Australia 21:00 to 00:00) (7:00 to 10 EST) (12:00 to 15:00 UK).
  • Location: Live streaming via the net.

 

There is an SGD registration fee of $20 (about US $14)

If you’d like to attend, on or before Monday, 26 June 21:00, please drop a line to:

Ray Barros Trading Group <support@tradingsuccess.com>

——————-

Image credits: www.linkedin.com/pulse/video-streaming-methodology-reema-majumdar

July 5 – Enquiries

BarroMetrics Views: July 5 – Enquiries

I was planning to post this on Monday, June 19. But, I received quite a few emails asking how to register, so I’m posting the entry today. The link for registration will be posted on June 19.

The main email question raised was: how is July 5 different? It’s different because I’m attempting to synthesise live trading with supporting content.

If you have attended a live trading presentation, you’ll probably have shared the same reaction: how boring!

  • The presenter rattles on about what he plans to do;
  • The market does its thing, taking its own sweet time. In the meantime, the presenter has to somehow fill the empty minutes. You know the ones, the minutes spent waiting for the trade to setup and follow-through!

That’s what I wanted to avoid. So, on July 5, the real-time trading will be used as a context to a process. Follow the process you ensure you are taking a high-quality trade:

  • One with the appropriate reward: risk ratio, and
  • One with the pre-planning that prevents the 3Fs (fight, flight, or fear) from kidnapping our neo-cortex. As a result, you’ll eliminate most of your impulse trades.

Also, each registrant will receive:

  • A mechanical trend-trading method
  • An equity journal spreadsheet that calculates the essential trading stats (retail USD 130.00 to USD 225.00); and
  • A template for the psych journal.

The second question raised was: will the presentation be made available to those living ex-Singapore?

That will depend on the registrations. We’ll need around 30 to justify the costs of streaming. Also, the time is a factor for overseas traders. The presentation takes place between 19:15 to 21:15:

  • In Sydney, that’s 21:15 to 23:15
  • In New York, that’s 7:15 to 9:15 and
  • In London, that’s 12:00 to 14:00

The takeaways:

  1. You’ll have a professional model for analysing the markets
  2. You’ll have a process for skirting the three major mistakes made by 90% of traders.
  3. You’ll receive high-quality attendance gifts.

Stayed tuned for Monday’s post. And no, I won’t release the rego link before June 19.

Image credits: iqoption

Nassim Taleb’s Interesting Ideas

BarroMetrics Views: Nassim Taleb’s Interesting Ideas 

I’ve been focused on creating the material for a July 5 three-hour presentation in Singapore. The format will be different to anything I have ever done so it’s taking quite a chunk of my time. The good news is I’ll have all done by tonight.

In the meantime, here’s an interesting piece by Dr Wealth on Nassim Tableb.

Nassim Taleb – A Contrarian Investor and his Unorthodox Ideas

Image Credits: flckr.com

Hung Parliament!

BarroMetrics Views: Hung Parliament!

Well, folks, it’s confirmed, the UK has a hung Parliament.  What does that mean?

In the UK, a party that has 326 is said to have a majority – it can pass legislation with the support of other parties. A hung parliament occurs when a party captures less than 326 seats. The options for the Conservatives are:

  • Form a minority government (May will need the support of a minor party for each piece of legislation) or
  • Form a coalition (there will be a formal agreement with a minor party for support

Only the Democratic Unionist have professed support for May. The problem is the DUP won only 10 seats. So even with their total support, the Tories have only 315+10 = 325 i.e. one short of the needed 326.

What about the Liberal Democrats? It did form a coalition with the Tories in 2010.  I just can’t see Tim Farron working with May. Sure, politics form strange bedfellows. But, in this case, I think it highly unlikely – especially with May’s refusal to resign.

The conundrum that the Tories are in means there is only one other solution: another election. And, another election will bring more uncertainty into the marketplace. You know how markets abhor uncertainty!

For the trader, the problems stemming from the election produce a simple strategy. Find the appropriate GBP pair, look for a place to institute a trade and go short!

 

MASTERY – A Post Mortem

(through the courtesy of orozcode sign studio)

BarroMetrics Views: MASTERY – A Post Mortem

We completed Mastery last week. Undoubtedly is was the comprehensive and mentally exhausting course I have held – at least so far as I’m concerned.

How would I rate its success?

For me, a mixed bag: from incredible, unexpected results to disappointing. ‘Incredible’ because a couple of attendees made significant breakthroughs; ‘disappointing’ because some could have done much better. 

What was the difference between the two groups?

The ‘success’ group gave it their all. Right from the start, I could see they were committed to living up to their highest potential – no matter what. They attended all the sessions and did all the assigned work irrespective of what was happening in their lives. Also, the quality of the assigned work showed they had put in time and effort.

The ‘failure’ group attended most of the meetings and did most of the assigned work – with the key distinctions being ‘all’ and ‘most’. Also, the ‘failure’ group’s quality of assigned was poor. The work resembled a hurriedly constructed piece with little thought.

So, what’s the takeaway? You want to succeed in the markets? Do the work! Commit to your own success without excuses and with a ‘whatever it takes‘. Come into trading with a determination less than that, and you’ll fail – not ‘if’ or ‘perhaps’ but ‘will’.