Purpose and The EURUSD

BarroMetrics Views: Purpose and The EURUSD

I dislike organizing seminars; believe me there is a lot of work involved. A friend asked me yesterday: “Why do you it? At the price (A$650.00), they should be breaking the doors down to get in; instead you are working your a.. off to fill your target!”

Hey I never said holding an annual seminar will be easy, especially since, as Chrisy (my wife) says, I sell hard work rather than empty promises. Ultimately our purpose and commitment to that purpose will determine the success or failure of an outcome. It took 7 years to build my name in this part of the world. At one stage the question was: “Who is Ray Barros? Why should we invite him to speak at our event?”. Now it’s: “See if  Ray is available and do your best to get him to speak for us”.

So who knows, next year I may not have to work so hard to fill my seats to the free event (the over-600 crowd on May 15 was the result of much hard work on the part of many) and to fill the seats to my paid 2-day seminar. And if I can help just 5 traders avoid the mistakes I made when I first started, then it would be all worthwhile.

But let’s turn to the markets.

The EURUSD is the hottest thing around at the moment. Every time I have been  interviewed, I could count  a question on it.

Figure 1 shows the 12-M swing. Given the volatility of the sideways congestion, I would expect the current pullback of the breakdown to take the form of a sideways market. The low seems well established at 1.2185 or so. We need only find the high where the EURUSD should congest for a day or two. Right now the favourite candidate is 1.2420. The range provides the following info:

  1. Primary Sell Zone 1.2420 to 1.2390
  2. Maximum Extension 1.2466 (say 1.2470).
  3. Primary Buy Zone: 1.2217 (say 1.2220) to 1.2185
  4. Value Area 1.2343 (say 1.2345) to 1.2265
  5. Death Zone 1.2304 (say 1.2305) to 1.2265

Acceptance above 1.2470 raises the possibility of a Negative Development Buy that has a target zone beginning at 1.5625. I’ll deal with that should we see acceptance above 1.2470.

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FIGURE 1 12-M EURUSD

20-5-2010-7-31-03-am-60min-sq.jpg

FIGURE 2 60-min EURUSD

14 thoughts on “Purpose and The EURUSD”

  1. “…I sell hard work”: S$650 to be told the ‘Holy Grail’ is indeed a bargain. Problem is that I guess most expect the ‘Holy Grail’ to be a combination of a couple of technical indicators which can be triggered, traded and closed while one is asleep. So by advertising that you’re going to give away the ‘Holy Grail’ may be misrepresentation to those that expect high rewards from minimal effort. Unfortunately this is not the road to riches in the world of trading.

  2. sorry, no idea what you are saying about EUR/USD, haha.

    i’m trying to get long at this point. i think we are near or at the low.

    wish me luck.

  3. Hi Ray,
    I have attended your free seminar on 15 May as recommended by my Forex Mentor during our weekly gathering.

    He has even done a free advertising in our FX forum to remind us to attend your free seminar. I believe he didn’t earn a cent from you for doing so.

    My FX Mentor is a highly respected FX Master and I believe it won’t go wrong to follow his advice.

    I made my own judgment too and I would like to tell you that I have already signed up for your 2-day paid course on 18 May.

    So far, I’m happy to receive the preliminary materials for the paid course. I learn a lot from the Candlestick notes. It is clear and easy to follow. I like it very much.

    I sincerely look forward to learning more valuable trading skills, psychological management, risk management, etc. from you.

    Lastly, thank you very much for your time and effort in giving free seminar in a 5-star hotel (the Grand Hyatt!!!) to Singaporeans. You’re charging a 3-digit instead of a 4-digit paid course. Ray, you’re just so kind.

    Cheers,
    Oceany

  4. Hi AkiKana

    Thanks for the comment.

    Sorry for the delay. I am only now catching up with my mail after a crazy day yesterday.

    Reading your comment….

    …While I sometimes say that the Expectancy Return is the ‘Holy Grail’, I went to the HOS site (http://www.tradingsuccess.com/hos.html) to see if I used the expression there. Nope.

    So I am not sure where I advertised that I was giving the Holy Grail.

    You are right, of course. Ericson says that it will take 10k hours to get to mastery; Coyle suggests his model will reduce that by 50%. But that is still 5k hours of sustained effort.

    Effort is required for success.

  5. Hi Oceany

    Thank you for taking time out to drop me a line.

    Glad to hear that your mentor was so kind. Drop me a note on who he is as I’d like to send him a thank you note.

    See you May 29.

  6. Hi Coconut

    Thanks for the comment.

    I was saying that I thought the 1.2420 area was the likely top to a correction. Clearly in that comment I was incorrect.

    See today’s blog for an update.

  7. @ Akikana
    (Guy, January 2008, Tokyo.)

    I think you can be forgiven as I see you are from Japan and the understanding of English may have been your problem.

    Our mentor Ray if you have followed his blogs has never believed there is a Holy Grail in trading!!!

    No trader worth his salt, so to speak, will ever go down this road of thinking.

    I am sure all other traders here will agree with me on this point, of any Holy Grail in trading matters.

    Idkit

  8. Hi Ray,
    My Forex Mentor has been interviewed by Dr Dariusz Swierk and his name can be found in Dr Swierk’s Forex Market Masters ebook.

    OK….his name is Clarence Chee.

  9. My comment was meant more along the lines of many newcomers to trading (especially in FX) seem to spend an inordinate amount of time searching for the ‘Holy Grail’ of indicators that gives them the perfect set-up for minimal effort and wonderous reward. I, like Ray’s wife, have found that ‘Holy Grail’ and it’s not an indicator but hard, honest work. There is no short cut to trading successfully consistantly. It is a daily regime of watching, learning, patience and clinical execution when the time is right. Perhaps my English humour (don’t assume everyone from Japan is Japanese) was just a little too subtle in my initial comment. Keep up the good work Ray!

  10. Hi AkiKana

    Thanks for the comment.

    We are on one mind on what it takes to succeed. All the best with your trading,

  11. @Akikana

    Your English quote:
    So by advertising that you’re going to give away the ‘Holy Grail’ may be misrepresentation to those that expect high rewards from minimal effort. Unfortunately this is not the road to riches in the world of trading. Unquote

    Yes, I am actually aware of where you come from.

    However, your ‘English humour’ does not show up well when you wrote the way you term ‘subtle’.

    I am quite used to English humour….

    Sorry, I could not read your humour at all.

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