S&P 08-11-2008

I know I am supposed to comment on the S&P, Strait Times, All Ords and Sensex. But over the weekend, I received a number of requests to do an analysis clearly identifying Nature of Trends Material (NOT), Market Profile and Ray Wave.

I am happy to oblige. The link for the video is: http://www.tradingsuccess.com/download/811-blog/811-blog.html

There are a few points I want to make.

  1. There are no Ray Wave Counts. The RW is best used in directional markets; the Market Profile in rotational. The RW material lies in the ratios used to identify the possible resistance zone.
  2. My starting point is the theme that the massive increase in M3 will force the FED to raise rates, probably after the elections. This is a continuation of the theme that enabled me to identify the coming of the sub-prime crisis long before the crisis hit.
  3. I say in the video that the 12-m Upthrust was confirmed (by the June bar)…..This was a poor choice of words. The Upthrust will not be confirmed until we see lower lows and lower highs after acceptance below the October low at 768. What I should have said was: “The June bar increased the probability of a valid Upthrust Change In Trend pattern”.

3 thoughts on “S&P 08-11-2008”

  1. Hi Ray, This does help me bring to book to life. I was wondering with regards to the statistcal time price window,if you had considered making a distintion to the impulse means ie up,down and congestion. The saying “up the stairs,down the elevator ” comes to mind.I know the book says no distinction of impulses but might a large sample base in those 3 areas add to,definitions like normal strong etc by way of comparison.

  2. Hi Baz

    There are no impulse moves within a congestion pattern. I treat them as corrective moves.

    In NOT jargon XA is the impulse move; BC form the minimum sideways swings (corrective) and thereafter all swings are corrective until there is breakout – at least on our testing.

    In downlegs for financials, FX and gold, over a large sample size, the TA truism that down moves are faster and deeper were proven false.

    HOWEVER the down moves in the grain markets that I now look at, – Soybeans and Wheat- this is true once highs are made. If you look at a Soybean chart you’ll see many instances of V-type tops.

  3. Yes i used the wrong word with regard to congestion but its good to expose the myth which i had believed for over 20 years.With the grains i believe this to be a seasonal affect. cheers baz

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