BarroMetrics Views: Learning from History?
Is the mainstream press willing to learn from history? Judging from the Dutch and forecasts for the French elections, I don’t think so.
In the Dutch elections, the press was all agog about Wildes winning. Yet, in the polls, he was a long way behind; and if you surmised anything about Dutch electors, the probability of Wildes winning, on this occasion, was remote. After the result, the press proclaimed that sanity had been preserved and forecasted a similar result for the French.
Wait a minute guys and gals, didn’t Wildes’ party become the second largest party, netting 26 seats? I wouldn’t be writing off Le Pen on that outcome.
Turning to the French – first round April 23 and the second May 7.
The mainstream pundits are predicting a Le Pen-Macron win on April 23 and have all but written Le Pen off for the May 7 run-off (Google ‘who will win the French elections’ and you’ll see what I mean).
For the May 7 round, the Betfair Exchange has Macron odds-on to win at 20-21, with Le Pen at 13-5 (2.6-1).
The French polls remind me of Brexit and US elections all over again. The focus is off tangent. They seem to ignore the strong undercurrent of French sentiment against current French immigration policies. Le Pen is all for exiting the Schengen border-free zone while Macron is for keeping it. This is the most critical difference in their policies.
If Le Pen wins on April 23 and is at 2-1 or more for the May 7 elections, I’ll be tempted to have a friendly bet. At those prices, she is under the odds.