BarroMetrics Views: The Essential Nature of Markets
The other evening I engaged a couple of newbies in a discussion about what it takes to succeed. They took the view that success is all about the right strategy, the right method. The point I tried to make (without success) is a strategy while essential to success is not the end all and be all for attaining our trading dreams. What my companions were missing was the fact that success is the result of self-awareness and self-trust while operating within the essential nature of markets: uncertainty and ambiguity. Within this environment we learn to trust our ability to execute our trading decisions, to manage our risk and to follow the process of feedback that allows us to improve.
The models are an easy one to state:
- Identify the outcome you want
- Plan the steps towards the outcome
- Relate each step to the whole
- Set an outcome for the learning
- Take action
- Note the gap between the results and the desired outcome
- Reflect and plan new steps to close the gap
- Take action etc
Notice that in this model, there is no failure – all you have is feedback.
Coyle says that the model reduces the learning time by 50% so that to become unconsciously competent in any field will take 5000 hours and not 10,000.But my newbies the other night were not impressed. They wanted and did hold onto their belief that trading success is instantly attainable. “They could make it tomorrow if only some guru would be willing to share his secret with me.