The Greek-Restructure II…

BarroMetrics Views: The Greek-Restructure II

The newsflash just out is there was a participation rate of 85% (Greek Law) and around 69% (Foreign Law).  Greece has invoked the CACs and raised the participation rate to 95. Greece has extended the invitation to Foreign Law investors to March 23.

All this was as expected.

The problem now is not with the Greece situation but with what will happen to Italian, Portugal and Spanish Bond rates. My take is we’ll see bond investors abandon those bonds. This will result on pressure on rates in each of the three countries with the consequent pressure on the S&P.  And speaking of the S&P…

Today we have Non-Farm Payrolls. The expectations are:

  • Headline Number: Consensus 204,000, range 180,000  to 275,000
  • Participation Rate: Consensus 8.3 % range 8.1 % to 8.5 %

If ShadowStats is correct (& I believe it is), the US Department has been playing ducks and drakes with the monthly numbers. If its practice continues (and I believe it will until after the elections), we should see numbers at the higher end of the consensus range, say 250k to 275k. That should send the S&P up, at least for today.

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