The Sub-Prime Second Wave? IV

First off an announcement: I am taking a Xmas break: Dec 24 to Dec 28. The next entry will be Dec 29.

I was going to start on the technical picture but a couple of e-mail questions need to be addressed:

  • One asked why a little inflation was not a good thing?
  • Another asked if I thought a Weimar Republic type inflation (wheelbarrows of money) was what I was envisaging when I use the words ‘inflation/hyperinflation’.

In answering Q1, we need to identify the roots of inflation: the creation of a money supply in excess of productivity. Given the amount created and the FED’s stated intent to create as much as necessary to ‘defeat’ the recession, speaking of ‘a little’ inflation is out of the question. I expect to see inflation rates at around 15%.

A book that paints a vivid picture the US faced such a situation is “The Great Inflation and Its Aftermath” by R Samuelson. You’ll see the negative consequences of inflation in the book.

Q2: As a best guess, at this point, I’d say probably not. I expect to see action taken long before that happens. But we don’t need to see that type of inflation to see a second sub-prime type crisis.

My blogs, “The Sub-Prime Second Wave? I – III” have outlined the probability of a second coming without an increase in interest rates, and this will most probably come given the expansion of the money supply. That being the case, if inflation does rear its ugly head, we’ll see an even greater credit crisis.

3 thoughts on “The Sub-Prime Second Wave? IV”

  1. I hope you,Chrisy,Ana,Kwok & all your readers,have a nice Christmas. Thank you for making time to write the blog.I have found the content to be very interesting and thoughtful.Best wishes, cheers Baz

  2. Thank you, Baz.

    To wind up for the year, here is one more piece that I borrowed from our mentor to share with you and all readers:

    http://www.facebook.com/album.php?aid=54553&l=cec57&id=659616546

    Life as a Hero

    We all experience challenges, misfortune, and hardship that demand we grow beyond our current abilities. These changes require that we step beyond our comfort circles and explore new avenues of self-expression.

    Here is how from Dr. Annette Colby http://www.AnnetteColby.com

    More at:
    http://awanginvest.com/?p=1023

    Sponsor an Executive

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qDC0qcf0kzE

    #

    More lookbacks:

    http://blog.mdwoptions.com/options_for_rookies/2008/09/what-other-bloggers-are-saying.html

    From Traderfeed:
    http://www.greenfaucet.com/international……..
    * Worth Following – The Traders’ Talk feature of the Green Faucet site includes perspectives from some keen market observers.

    AND to keep fit for 2009 trading:

    http://awanginvest.com/?page_id=319

    Wishing all a Merry X’mas and Happy New Year 2009!

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